Holy cow! This VP debate is bigger than the Thrilla in Manila! Bigger than "One small step for Mankind"! Bigger than the Oscars!!
There's a sense that people are scurrying around trying to leave work early (out west) so they can get to their debate watching parties on time. And, while there's no red carpet, the excitement everywhere is palpable, people are hyped (without the assistance of caffeine or other substances), and as one blogger (or someone) mentioned, this debate is like watching a NASCAR race and just waiting for the car wreck.
Biden has to answer questions skillfully - he already knows some of them and the plan of the Palin attack - be relaxed, funny and charming, and let Palin talk and talk and talk and talk and talk. The way Palin spouts her answers, she reminds me of Silly String...all that brightly colored plastic mousse getting entangled everywhere and making a hideous mess. (By the way, Silly String is banned in Canada, and hopefully, this Palin can of hot air will also be dispatched.)
Well, let the countdown begin, tighten your seatbelts, and hang on for crazy ride!
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Interesting Poll Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Real Credibility Problems
Last week, I (Nate Silver) discussed Real Clear Politics' decision to exclude the Research 2000 daily tracking poll from their national averages. After a lengthy discussion with RCP founder John McIntyre, I decided to defend them, pointing out that while RCP may have a debatable framework for deciding which polls they do or do not include, they at least appeared to have applied this framework consistently.
My gut-level takeaway from my conversation with McIntyre was somewhat different from what I represented, however. My gut-level feeling was that RCP was in fact cherry-picking those results that were to its liking, and then coming up with post-facto rationalizations to justify its decisions.
For the rest of the article: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Sarah Palin ...You're Not in Alaska Anymore
Gawd, can I just say how sick I am of this whole debate 'low bar', 'raising the bar', winning without a 'bar', talking heads blabbering on about who's gonna win the Biden/Palin debate...enough already. Let the debate begin!
Listen, pretend for a moment you're Sarah Palin. Really small town gal in the big city. How 'bout in a big country? And what about being on the World Stage? As clueless as she's appeared, Sarah's got to be thinking about how the eyes of the world will be on her. But, then again, maybe she's not, as her misconstrued self-confidence glows like the halo of an impenetrable bubble of ignorance around her pretty little head. A bubble that filters the ways, and news, and facts of the outside world for her. She seems to live in a Wonderland of denial.
So, Sarah, you can snow people in Alaska, but the lower 48 actually read papers (is that elitist?) and have a pretty good idea of what's going on in the world; they may even know some facts. Hey, you're about to wake up and realize, "Sarah, you're not in Alaska anymore!" This is gonna be fun.
Listen, pretend for a moment you're Sarah Palin. Really small town gal in the big city. How 'bout in a big country? And what about being on the World Stage? As clueless as she's appeared, Sarah's got to be thinking about how the eyes of the world will be on her. But, then again, maybe she's not, as her misconstrued self-confidence glows like the halo of an impenetrable bubble of ignorance around her pretty little head. A bubble that filters the ways, and news, and facts of the outside world for her. She seems to live in a Wonderland of denial.
So, Sarah, you can snow people in Alaska, but the lower 48 actually read papers (is that elitist?) and have a pretty good idea of what's going on in the world; they may even know some facts. Hey, you're about to wake up and realize, "Sarah, you're not in Alaska anymore!" This is gonna be fun.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Age of Aquarius?
Instead of looking at the 'bailout catastrophe' as the end of the world, why not see it as the beginning a new world order? Without hyperbole, we have a once in a lifetime opportunity to right the egregious imbalance of the 'haves' and 'have nots' or 'haves very little'. First of all, there is no need to rush to pass a troubled, "less than perfect" bill just to appease the fat cats without considering creative, viable alternatives. And that takes time. Time that, in the end, would prove time well spent to come up with solutions that make sense for everybody.
This doesn't mean that Karl Marx would be riding into town, that there would be an automatic redistribution of wealth - although it would be nice, but an equitable solution could bring people at the top, down to earth - well, they'd still be hovering above ground, for sure - and would, at least, give people who are struggling, a sense that their concerns are being addressed, and dealt with.
My hope is that Obama takes a real leadership role in this, has the courage to not cowtow to pressure from Wall Street, but does, indeed, take the principled stand to stand up for Main Street (new buzz words).
I have believed in Obama, the man (not his every stance on issues) as have millions of others, and I have volunteered for him from the very first day he announced his candidacy to run for President, opining that with his ascension to President, we might all rise to become our better selves...that materialism, greed, and abject self-interest would drown in the Swamp of Avarice, and penury would be offered a helping hand. We can see the Age of Aquarius just peeking over the horizon...all we have to do is have the fortitude to not succumb to the forces at the top, to those who want to keep their status quo while not improving ours.
Here is our opportunity to right the ark...the ark that is so lopsided that it is in danger of sinking with the majority going down first while the 'ruling class' at the top claws desperately to try and save themselves by clinging to the rotten starboard rails.
Here's your chance to be heroic, Obama. Be the White/Black Knight that gallops onto stage left, and "saves the day!" Bring all sides together, as you say you're good at, and don't leave the stage until you have brokered a sensible bill. The Age of Aquarius is depending on you.
This doesn't mean that Karl Marx would be riding into town, that there would be an automatic redistribution of wealth - although it would be nice, but an equitable solution could bring people at the top, down to earth - well, they'd still be hovering above ground, for sure - and would, at least, give people who are struggling, a sense that their concerns are being addressed, and dealt with.
My hope is that Obama takes a real leadership role in this, has the courage to not cowtow to pressure from Wall Street, but does, indeed, take the principled stand to stand up for Main Street (new buzz words).
I have believed in Obama, the man (not his every stance on issues) as have millions of others, and I have volunteered for him from the very first day he announced his candidacy to run for President, opining that with his ascension to President, we might all rise to become our better selves...that materialism, greed, and abject self-interest would drown in the Swamp of Avarice, and penury would be offered a helping hand. We can see the Age of Aquarius just peeking over the horizon...all we have to do is have the fortitude to not succumb to the forces at the top, to those who want to keep their status quo while not improving ours.
Here is our opportunity to right the ark...the ark that is so lopsided that it is in danger of sinking with the majority going down first while the 'ruling class' at the top claws desperately to try and save themselves by clinging to the rotten starboard rails.
Here's your chance to be heroic, Obama. Be the White/Black Knight that gallops onto stage left, and "saves the day!" Bring all sides together, as you say you're good at, and don't leave the stage until you have brokered a sensible bill. The Age of Aquarius is depending on you.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
More From Public Obama Enemy #1
Bill Clinton: Don't 'Overly Parse' McCain Request to Delay Debate
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/bill-clinton-do.htmlWednesday, September 24, 2008
National Enquirer Coming Through as Predicted!
Ok, the story's breaking as per my post of September 8:
The World Will Be Saved by the National Enquirer
Here's the latest: http://www.nationalenquirer.com/national_enquirer_world_exclusive_sarah_palins_secret_lover_revealed/celebrity/65481
The World Will Be Saved by the National Enquirer
Here's the latest: http://www.nationalenquirer.com/national_enquirer_world_exclusive_sarah_palins_secret_lover_revealed/celebrity/65481
The Enemies List of the Obama Campaign as Compiled by Me
Public Obama Enemy # 1. BILL CLINTON
This is what happens when deep psychological pathology intersects with unbridled ambition and lust for power with a vengeful, reptilian nature with a Rushmore-like ego with a sickening paucity of a moral compass. Here's the disgusting non-endorsement by the spiteful, Bill Clinton:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dns6oX4p98
Email conversation between me and my son:
Son: i don't think Clinton understands how much he's hurting his standing with this stuff. i dislike him way more than i dislike his wife.
Me: i never liked the sonofabitch, and now i have nothing but contempt for him. if the clintons think that, if Obama loses, we will rally around her in 2012 (the year the world is supposed to come to an end), they are clearly smoking something very strong. i never understood that thinking 6 months ago, and it doesn't make any better sense now. do they think that no one else will emerge or be worthy to run then?
Obama will win November 4th. Period. The Clintons can start their own country. Maybe they can hook up with the Palins, have Alaska secede from the Union and form some kind of monarchy. Then they can battle amongst themselves. Possibilities abound.
This is what happens when deep psychological pathology intersects with unbridled ambition and lust for power with a vengeful, reptilian nature with a Rushmore-like ego with a sickening paucity of a moral compass. Here's the disgusting non-endorsement by the spiteful, Bill Clinton:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dns6oX4p98
Email conversation between me and my son:
Son: i don't think Clinton understands how much he's hurting his standing with this stuff. i dislike him way more than i dislike his wife.
Me: i never liked the sonofabitch, and now i have nothing but contempt for him. if the clintons think that, if Obama loses, we will rally around her in 2012 (the year the world is supposed to come to an end), they are clearly smoking something very strong. i never understood that thinking 6 months ago, and it doesn't make any better sense now. do they think that no one else will emerge or be worthy to run then?
Obama will win November 4th. Period. The Clintons can start their own country. Maybe they can hook up with the Palins, have Alaska secede from the Union and form some kind of monarchy. Then they can battle amongst themselves. Possibilities abound.
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