Friday, September 19, 2008

Info re: current EV = Electoral Votes

Also from my polling friend (numbers as of 9/19/08):

Obama: 311 McCain: 227 Others: 0 MoE: 50 (Obama leads McCain by about 1.68 times the MoE)

Critical states: NV(Obama), CO(Obama), NM(Obama), IN(McCain), OH(Obama), PA(Obama), VA(Omaba).

Other states that could shift based on the perception of the debates: NH(Obama), WV(McCain), WI(Obama), MI(OBama), MN(OBama), MO(McCain), MT(McCain)

Obama has more to lose from the debates than McCain, but this is not surprising. When you are in the lead, you have more opportunities to lose.

The meaning of the MoE can vary from poll to poll. When some polls say MoE 4% they mean +/- 4%. That is the %-age for a candidate can be from 4% higher to 4% lower. Their MoE is twice as wide as our MoE.

Some polls use MoE to mean standard deviation. So their MoE means that there is a 68.2% chance that the actual results will lie within their +/- MoE.

BTW: has good analytical methodology. I recommend following it as well.

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