Friday, September 19, 2008

Info re: current EV = Electoral Votes

Also from my polling friend (numbers as of 9/19/08):

Obama: 311 McCain: 227 Others: 0 MoE: 50 (Obama leads McCain by about 1.68 times the MoE)

Critical states: NV(Obama), CO(Obama), NM(Obama), IN(McCain), OH(Obama), PA(Obama), VA(Omaba).

Other states that could shift based on the perception of the debates: NH(Obama), WV(McCain), WI(Obama), MI(OBama), MN(OBama), MO(McCain), MT(McCain)

Obama has more to lose from the debates than McCain, but this is not surprising. When you are in the lead, you have more opportunities to lose.

NOTE:
The meaning of the MoE can vary from poll to poll. When some polls say MoE 4% they mean +/- 4%. That is the %-age for a candidate can be from 4% higher to 4% lower. Their MoE is twice as wide as our MoE.

Some polls use MoE to mean standard deviation. So their MoE means that there is a 68.2% chance that the actual results will lie within their +/- MoE.

BTW: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com has good analytical methodology. I recommend following it as well.

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